Analysis Reports

In many ways Argentina has become an unlikely poster child for liberalisation in the aviation sector in Latin America. After years of protectionism, the country's President Javier Milei introduced reforms that have produced favourable results in Argentina's airline sector.

But mid-term elections in Argentina scheduled for 26-Oct-2025 are in some ways a referendum on Mr Miliei's first two years in office, and perhaps could offer clues to the longevity of his reforms.

The word uncertainty has been used with regularity during 2025 to describe the travel sector. In fact, the aviation industry is in the middle of a paradoxical situation, with uncertainty both growing and diminishing at the same time.

Travel is more 'normal' than it has been since air travel plummeted by more than 90% in early 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the ensuing five years fears (or hopes) of permanent structural shifts in aviation have all-but evaporated.

Global travel patterns have, with a few exceptions, returned to what they once were. The air travel industry is enjoying consistently strong demand, near record profitability, increasingly stable operational performance and more visibility around major cost inputs such as fuel, labour and raw materials.

At the same time the industry faces a global outlook that is increasingly uncertain. Following the 'Year of the Elections' in 2024, where more than 3.7 billion people across more than 70 countries participated in elections that decided national governments. 2025 was always going to bring some change.

On top of this, the world is experiencing a growing risk environment. Geopolitical tensions and state-based armed conflicts are growing in number and scale. Societal and political polarisation continue to spread, underpinned by the production of misinformation and disinformation. This is exacerbated by rising wealth inequality and then accelerated by the ever-increasing scale and pace of technological advancement.

For years the "Big 3" in the US market were defined as the nation's largest global network airlines - American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines.

But now, Delta and United have concluded that a bifurcation has occurred in the industry, and they have become the definitive industry leaders in the market.

The obvious question is where does this leave American?

And when will the airline make headway in closing the margin gap with its global network rivals?

Azerbaijan's Sovereign Wealth Fund, SOFAZ, has joined the ranks of airport investors, with a small GBP50 million investment into London Gatwick Airport in tandem with existing investor GIP, once the operator there but now a minority shareholder, just (49.9%).

The investment does not affect the ownership of the airport's operating company and is being seen as more of a partnership arrangement, with SOFAZ using the opportunity to feel its way into the business by linking up with organisations that are long established in the sector.

That may seem unusual but it makes sense. SOFAZ has no experience of airports, but it does bring knowledge of other sectors, like solar farms, that could prove useful.

London Gatwick was so badly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic that a deal like this would not have been credible only a couple of years ago but a renaissance, together with other factors and coupled with government support for a new runway, has changed the game.

The question now is how this new investor, the second SWF to get itself involved with London Gatwick, will work with other interested parties there, for there are many. There is at least no suggestion of any tension between the two main shareholders, GIP and VINCI Airports, which hold almost equal equity.

The other question is to what degree if any SOFAZ will wish to invest, in any way, at other airports in Europe, because opportunities will assuredly arise despite the sluggish level of M&A activity in the sector.

IATA boss Willie Walsh says that oil suppliers are "price gouging" when selling airlines sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is crucial to aviation's 2050 net zero target.

This is because they are passing on the cost of compliance with EU and UK SAF mandates to their airline customers.

This adds even further to the cost of SAF, already much more expensive than jet fuel.

Moreover, through the law of unintended consequences, it acts as a disincentive to the development of the embryonic SAF market that the mandates are aimed at stimulating.

Mr Walsh argues that European regulators should eliminate SAF mandates.

He may have a point.

As the Brazilian airport privatisation scheme, now in its 14th year, draws to a conclusion it got an unexpected shot in the arm by way of AmpliAR, an extension concocted by the Ministry of Ports and Airports to include small regional airports, up to 100 of them, in it.

Brazil has the second largest collection of airports in the world after the United States.

The first airports have been identified, in the Amazon and Northeast regions of the country where distances are big, habitations remote and transport thin both on the ground and in the air.

The objective is to attract to them the sizeable number of Brazilian companies that turned up at the end of the original concession process, to bid for the first batch of smaller airports to come on the radar.

That isn't to say that completely new bidders would be excluded today. The Ministry's objective is probably to start replacing the international firms that have been running the show at most levels via their concessions with Brazilian companies even if it is necessary for the latter to form consortiums in order to do so.

The best place to start that process is with the small regional airports.

Already some of those international firms have moved on and retendering is set to become more frequent the longer the Lula government stays in power.

But two of the first three airports to be tendered through AmpliAR offer a combined total of 60 seats a week at present. The total at the third one is anyone's guess; quite possibly zero.

Fortunately there are other ways in which those airports could attract business beyond scheduled and charter flights but it still requires a great deal of trust in the government's judgment for a local investor to jump onboard straight away.

Turkish Airlines (THY) has agreed a firm order for 50 Boeing 787 widebodies, with options for 25 more. Deliveries are expected in 2029-2034 and the deal will bring the 787-10 into its fleet for the first time, alongside the 787-9.

THY is also close to ordering 100 737 MAX narrowbodies, subject to an engine deal with CFM International. Moreover, it is interested in a future order for Boeing 777X widebodies.

These orders will help the group towards its 2033 goal of 800 aircraft. They will also tilt its fleet towards the US manufacturer Boeing, and away from its current Airbus bias.

It is notable that THY's announcement referred to "the strategic partnership between Türkiye and the United States, as well as the long-standing cooperation between Turkish Airlines and Boeing".

Any major cross-border order today is made in the context of the global trade environment and US tariff policies. This deal will benefit the US trade balance with Türkiye, so why not send a gentle reminder?

When the King Shaka Airport opened to the north of Durban in 2010 (specifically a 'World Cup' project), it was one of very few new airports to open in South Africa in recent memory - indeed, on the entire continent. The airports elsewhere on operator ACSA's network were upgraded, rather than replaced by new ones.

King Shaka replaced Durban International, situated close to the city's downtown, which had a short runway and couldn't be extended because it was in the middle of an industrial area.

King Shaka has gone on to win awards like 'Best Regional Airport in Africa', but it is 60km north of the city, and 15 years after opening there are calls for another new airport to be built in the south of Durban where the old airport used to be (to pacify locals that feel that the city is losing out on tourism).

There are few suggestions that King Shaka is challenged in any way by lack of capacity or that another airport could easily attract airlines there.

Improved surface transport links that speed up the journey to and from King Shaka might be an alternative way of tackling the conundrum, and they are discussed in this report.

In the fiercely competitive world of air service development, data is power - and timing is everything.

As airports globally work to recover and grow in a post-pandemic aviation landscape, the stakes have never been higher when it comes to understanding passenger behaviour, identifying missed opportunities, and making the right case to airlines.

That's where Aviation Week Network's newly enhanced 'Catchment Analyzer' arrives with timely relevance, offering airports and route developers a sophisticated lens into their true market potential.

SAS relaunched its intra-Europe business class cabin on 1-Oct-2025. This fits in with its closer ties to Air France-KLM and its growing role in feeding its partners' long haul hubs.

However, business class capacity on European short/medium haul routes is at historically low levels: intra-Western Europe business class seat numbers are down by 81% over the past 10 years.

Nevertheless, the decline has levelled off, and may even be rising very slowly.

This report examines the development of intra-Western Europe business class capacity over the past decade, and ranks European airlines in this segment.