Analysis Reports

It's been broadly a year since Argentina's President Javier Milei introduced changes to liberalise the country's aviation sector while also forging Open Skies agreements with numerous countries.

Airlines have definitely taken advantage of opportunities stemming from the changes, which is reflected in Argentina's system seat growth.

More international growth, intra-regional and long haul, is on the horizon.

One of Mr Milei's other goals, the privatisation of the state-owned airline Aerolineas Argentinas, has not occurred. And while it is tough to see investors stepping forward in the near future, there are some signs that the airline's financial state is improving.

Those conversant with the multiple runway airports that are hubs in North America, Europe, and to a lesser degree in Asia Pacific, might be led to believe that a single-runway airport is most likely to be found in a small regional city, or an off-the-beaten-track vacation destination.

But that is far from the truth.

Europe's 10th and 12th busiest airports figure in the Top 3 in the list of 46 of the busiest single-runway airports globally, here, along with Asia Pacific's own 14th busiest.

London, the busiest and most complex aviation city hub in the world, has three entries, while the busiest of the lot there manages to make do with two, shining a light on the peculiar way in which the UK handles flight activity in its capital city.

Meanwhile, there is a single 'low cost' airport in the list, suggesting that those airports that specialise in that model will never grow to any significant size, while one of only two identifiable vacation airports (with more inward traffic than outward) secures the 12th place in the listing.

There are many takeaways from this list, but the main one is that the cost of an additional runway, which will never bring in additional traffic rapidly, is always a very long term investment; maybe, in many cases - too much to bear, and therefore to justify.

The Russian national civil airport system is need of investment, and never more so than now. There is actually a fair amount of domestic private sector activity there through companies like Novaport, Airports of Regions and Basic Element/Basel Aero.

But the story lies in the singular failure of any foreign 'western' operator/investor (apart from Changi Airport International which took equity in 2017 in Vladivostok Knevichi Airport) to stay the course there.

Fraport was the first globally significant company to take a stake in a Russian airport, in 2010, but within the last three years it has withdrawn from operational activity at Saint Petersburg Pulkovo Airport following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and latterly has been expunged entirely as Pulkovo was renationalised.

Now it is the turn of Moscow's Domodedovo Airport, which for some time was controlled by the 'private sector', and mainly in the form of a single Russian individual.

No foreign companies were formally involved, but since Jan-2025 the management there (which has long been under state scrutiny) was accused of permitting such involvement clandestinely - and in the Kremlin that meant it was a case of Goodnight Vienna.

The end came when it was announced that Domodedovo was under state control, with effect 20-Jun-2025.

This raises two questions.

Firstly, what is the state going to do to rescue an airport that is in serious decline? One that would be a welcome challenge to a western investor.

And secondly, what future is there at all for foreign investors, assuming the war ends.

Probably none, by the look of it.

Two significant strategic developments in early Jul-2025 demonstrate how far SAS has progressed since the COVID-19 pandemic crisis forced it into a major restructuring programme in 2020.

Firstly, SAS announced an order for 45 new generation Embraer E195-E2s, plus 10 options. This is its largest order direct from an OEM since 1996.

Secondly, Air France-KLM announced that it will increase its stake in SAS from 19.9% to 60.5% (subject to regulatory approval).

These two announcements signal growing confidence about SAS' future, both on its own part and on the part of its main airline partner and shareholder.

The trend of LCCs adding widebody aircraft to their fleet mix is gaining more momentum in the Asia Pacific region, although this business model is still struggling to gain traction in Europe and North America.

Part one of this analysis examined fleet data to compare widebody numbers in service and on order in different regions.

In addition to these broader aspects, it also discussed widebody fleet plans for the LCCs IndiGo, Vietjet and T'Way, which have made notable moves on this front.

Part two will outline other Asia Pacific widebody LCC operations, as well as those in other regions.

The trend of low-cost carriers adding widebody aircraft to their fleet mix is continuing to strengthen in the Asia Pacific region, although the concept has stalled in other regions such as Europe and North America.

Several Asian LCCs are growing their widebody fleets and have signalled their long-term confidence in this business model by placing major orders. The market dynamics and geography of the Asia Pacific region are proving well suited to widebody LCC operations.

In contrast, it has been much harder to make the model work in Europe and North America. The few LCCs in these regions still operating widebodies are not increasing this fleet type significantly - and in some cases they have retreated.

Widebodies offer multiple benefits for LCCs: they can be used to target more distant markets, to increase capacity on high-demand routes, and to maximise slot use at congested airports.

These varied priorities mean it is not correct to classify the widebody operations discussed here simply as long haul low-cost.

Larger aircraft also give airlines more flexibility to introduce premium cabins - thus blurring the lines of the traditional low-cost business model.

Part one of this analysis will compare widebody LCC use in different regions using data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG. It will also take a look at the widebody fleets of some of the Asian LCCs with extensive expansion plans, such as IndiGo, Vietjet and T'Way.

Part two will outline other Asian LCCs' widebody moves, as well as developments in this segment in other regions.

Ryanair has come a very long way since it launched operations on 8-Jul-1985, when its sole aircraft - an Embraer EMB-110P1 Bandeirante - flew from Waterford in Ireland to London Gatwick.

In 40 years Ryanair has transformed itself from a small loss-making regional airline into the biggest airline group in Europe by passenger numbers, fleet, and number of routes. It is also one of the most consistently profitable and cash-generative European airline groups.

The key to its success since the 1990s has been its focus on costs. Nevertheless, the ultra-low cost airline has also evolved its business model, showing nimbleness and flexibility in spite of its size.

This report considers Ryanair Group's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Colombia's domestic aviation market has entered into a period of stabilisation after experiencing overcapacity, in the wake of two ULCCs ceasing operations in 2023 and the launch of the ultra-low cost carrier JetSMART Colombia.

Now the market has settled into three major players: Avianca, LATAM and JetSMART.

And as those airlines continue to observe positive trends domestically, a number of Colombian airlines are looking to expand their international footprints into new markets.

The prior CAPA - Centre for Aviation report on airport construction projects and their financing, a year ago, pointed to the number of projects and their value tumbling from previously recorded highs.

But on this occasion stability is the watchword, although results vary enormously between projects at existing airports and those that are greenfield ones. In the former category there have been substantial gains, but in the latter there have been falls, although part of the reason is that some projects have been deleted from the database as they can no longer be considered sustainable.

Asia Pacific leads the way, generally as usual, and especially where those new airports are concerned - in Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Australia, in all of which new ones will appear this year, next year, or soon thereafter.

In contrast, new airport activity in the United States has sunk as low as the attempts to privatise its facilities by lease. With the air traffic control network collapsing as well there, and Boeing's problems, it will require a lot more than the president's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' to put things right.

Two regions that are attracting specific attention are the Middle East and Africa, the former especially for the investment going into Saudi Arabia's airports, and the latter for new facilities in Ethiopia and Rwanda, neither of which are near conclusion, but which between them will enhance East Africa's profile enormously when they are.

So overall, the picture is brighter than it was 12 months ago, but as always there remain questions as to where the money is coming from for these projects, with airport revenues often still lagging 2019 figures (Rwanda just put in another USD500 million of taxpayers' money), and to how much longer the investment brigade will wait before it considers the airport arena to be attractive once more.

Eurowings and SunExpress are launching a new codeshare agreement in the Germany-Türkiye market in early Jul-2025, in time for the peak northern summer period.

In many ways, closer commercial co-operation between the two low-cost airlines seems long overdue. Eurowings is a subsidiary of Lufthansa, while SunExpress is jointly owned by Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines.

However, the relationship between Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines is yet to recover fully from the ending of their own bilateral codeshare more than a decade ago.

Moreover, the market between Germany and Türkiye is much more important to SunExpress than it is to Eurowings.

Nevertheless, both sides should gain from the codeshare, which may also be a sign of improving relations between Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines.